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South (Iraqi) Kurdish independence

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azadi7 View Drop Down
Janissary
Janissary


Joined: 30 Nov 2018
Status: Offline
Points: 16
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote azadi7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: South (Iraqi) Kurdish independence
    Posted: 30 Nov 2018 at 14:23
Here is a scenario for future South Kurdish independence from Iraq:

Russia supports South Kurdish independence from Iraq. USA doesn't intervene because Trump doesn't care about Kurdish independence. Turkey dislikes South Kurdish independence, but is persuaded by Russia to accept South Kurdish independence from Iraq. Russia promises Turkey to help Turkey against PKK in Syria. Turkey invades and occupies all PKK-controlled territory in Syria. Turkey also invades and occupies Idlib. A Turkish puppet state in northern Syria ruled by the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army and comprising the territories in Syria already occupied by Turkey and the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army, the territories in Syria currently controlled by PKK and Idlib. Most Syrian Kurds flee to independent South Kurdistan or are expelled to independent South Kurdistan. Assad stays in power in central and southern Syria with Russian help. Assad keeps all territory in Syria, that he currently controls.

What do you think of this scenario?
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franciscosan View Drop Down
Tsar
Tsar


Joined: 09 Feb 2015
Location: Littleton CO
Status: Offline
Points: 3410
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Dec 2018 at 00:36
Doesn't the Kurdish area in Iraq have oil?  I don't see Iraq giving it up readily.

Sounds like an expansion of the war from mainly internal matter and airstrikes to Turkish boots on the ground.
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azadi7 View Drop Down
Janissary
Janissary


Joined: 30 Nov 2018
Status: Offline
Points: 16
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote azadi7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Dec 2018 at 14:57
Most of the oil reserves are situated in the disputed Kirkuk region. And the South Kurdish Peshmerga are far stronger than the Iraqi army. The only obstacles from South Kurdish independence from Iraq are an Iranian or Turkish invasion of South (Iraqi) Kurdistan. And the KRG (the autonomous regional government of South (Iraqi) Kurdistan has nothing to do with PKK. I have also written a scenario on partitioning of Syria between Assad and a Turkish puppet state in my original post.
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azadi7 View Drop Down
Janissary
Janissary


Joined: 30 Nov 2018
Status: Offline
Points: 16
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote azadi7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Dec 2018 at 19:40
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