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North Korea

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    Posted: 12 Sep 2017 at 02:36
The just don't get it, do they?

The UN and some US allies have imposed trade sanctions on North Korea.

While common people in North Korea suffer daily as a result of the sanctions, Kim Jong UN continues on his merry way. He doesn't suffer any ill effect at all, while his people starve.

There must be a better way to deal with him. Threats only serve to encourage his brashness, somehow he must be brought to the table to discuss his issues and the best way to resolve them.

If China and Russia, which are both well placed to cripple North Korea, financially, diplomatically and militarily, won't back the USA, then other means must be found to convince him that his actions bring the world closer to a MAD solution.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Sep 2017 at 23:06
I think Kim Jong Un has learned his lessons very well.  Iraq got rid of its WMDs and was overthrown, Libya got rid of its WMDs and was overthrown.  Syria has gotten rid of its WMDs (?) and is destabilized right now.  No, Kim Jong Un feels that as long as he holds onto them, he'll remain in power, and cannot be destabilized from outside.  It may not be the lesson that we wanted to teach him, but it is the lesson he learned.  The fact that he doesn't care about the population, just means that he is willing to sacrifice 10-20% in imposing any attack.  Being humanistic, we can't stomach those kind of losses, even on his side.  Effectively, he is holding his own population hostage.

China and Russia are closer to North Korea, both geographically and culturally than we are.  They both were (and in many ways still are) enamored with crazy tyrants.  Russia has lost most of its communist satellites, but North Korea is in many ways, still loyal, still there.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2017 at 01:32
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

I think Kim Jong Un has learned his lessons very well.  Iraq got rid of its WMDs and was overthrown, Libya got rid of its WMDs and was overthrown.  Syria has gotten rid of its WMDs (?) and is destabilized right now.  No, Kim Jong Un feels that as long as he holds onto them, he'll remain in power, and cannot be destabilized from outside.  It may not be the lesson that we wanted to teach him, but it is the lesson he learned.  The fact that he doesn't care about the population, just means that he is willing to sacrifice 10-20% in imposing any attack.  Being humanistic, we can't stomach those kind of losses, even on his side.  Effectively, he is holding his own population hostage.

China and Russia are closer to North Korea, both geographically and culturally than we are.  They both were (and in many ways still are) enamored with crazy tyrants.  Russia has lost most of its communist satellites, but North Korea is in many ways, still loyal, still there.

I agree, but it would be interesting to know precisely what proportion of the population actually support him as displayed on TV news clips.

From what I've read, apparently some North Koreans are getting information about life in a democracy, and long to see it in their country. Likewise capitalism and the goods and services found elsewhere.

KJU is holding his own people as hostages and also the South Koreans, as any attempt to militarily engage him would make South Korea the first target.

While I don't think that military intervention is the right option, perhaps targetting his rocket sites for destruction is the only way.

Regardless, Kim Jong Un must be brought under control, and at this stage, I think that a United Nations Force, probably led by the USA, is the only way to deal with him. Let's then see if the population really do  idolise him. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2017 at 21:03
Anybody (Everybody) who is somebody in North Korea, would become a nobody if Korea was unified.  And there is no way to imagine a successor government to the current regime of North Korea, oh, there could be a changeover at the top, but that wouldn't change anything.  In a unified Korea the economic might of the South would eat the North alive.  The unification of Germany (East into West) is not much of a comparison.  So in the face of the unimaginable, Kim Jong Un is possibly the least drastic, least dangerous option.  If they were allowed to think about it, (which they aren't), I am sure many of them would not like him, but in order to posit change, one must have some idea of where one is going to go, and there is not much room to imagine that in North Korea.

Kim Jong Un's power rests upon the military, not upon the people.  That is another reason why he works to come across as so militaristic, so belligerent.  He knows who has the power base in his country.

Isn't there a thing such as a UN force not lead by the United States?  How about Switzerland leading the UN force, (is Switzerland even in the UN?). 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 00:39
Franciscosan
Quote And there is no way to imagine a successor government to the current regime of North Korea, oh, there could be a changeover at the top, but that wouldn't change anything.

I tend to agree with you, the top military brass seem to be totally indoctrinated with the Kim family way of doing things.

Quote  So in the face of the unimaginable, Kim Jong Un is possibly the least drastic, least dangerous option.  If they were allowed to think about it, (which they aren't), I am sure many of them would not like him, but in order to posit change, one must have some idea of where one is going to go, and there is not much room to imagine that in North Korea.

I wonder if, deep in the North Korean community, there is a hint of resistance to the governing clique?

Do you think that an all out attack, militarily, on North Korea is the answer? Talking and embargoes ,apparently, so far have done no good.

Quote Kim Jong Un's power rests upon the military, not upon the people.  That is another reason why he works to come across as so militaristic, so belligerent.  He knows who has the power base in his country.

I agree, he's taken a leaf out of the books of past dictators, and improved (?) on them for totalitarianism. And like others before him, the population are made to publicly display their love and loyalty to him-or else!!!

Quote Isn't there a thing such as a UN force not lead by the United States?  How about Switzerland leading the UN force, (is Switzerland even in the UN?).

Now you're being facetious.  LOL

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 05:18
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/05/north-korea-mountain-used-as-nuclear-test-site-at-risk-collapsing-chinese-scientist-says.html

Maybe one of the NK's launch sites will collapse and kill everyone with radiation leaks instead of using ICBM's.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 08:05
Originally posted by Vanuatu Vanuatu wrote:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/05/north-korea-mountain-used-as-nuclear-test-site-at-risk-collapsing-chinese-scientist-says.html

Maybe one of the NK's launch sites will collapse and kill everyone with radiation leaks instead of using ICBM's.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2017 at 03:26
Vanuatu
 I didn't really mean kill everybody, just the leadership group including Kim Jong Un.

North Korea has fired a second missile over Japan, it landed in the Sea of Japan about 200 miles from Hokkaido, as I understand it.

This continual provocation cannot be permitted to continue.

One day, very very soon, Kim Jong Un will go too far, and it will be war, and perhaps the sooner the better. The world must not continue to be threatened by this idiot.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2017 at 04:44
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Vanuatu
 I didn't really mean kill everybody, just the leadership group including Kim Jong Un.

North Korea has fired a second missile over Japan, it landed in the Sea of Japan about 200 miles from Hokkaido, as I understand it.

This continual provocation cannot be permitted to continue.

One day, very very soon, Kim Jong Un will go too far, and it will be war, and perhaps the sooner the better. The world must not continue to be threatened by this idiot.

Of course I know you don't want to kill everyone. Most want to see the NK's liberated but it's going to be turmoil in the event of a unified Korea.

There has to be an Allied response -overwhelming force- attempt to contain as much fall out as possible.

Who would be on the list of Allied nations?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2017 at 07:34
Vanuatu

Quote
There has to be an Allied response -overwhelming force- attempt to contain as much fall out as possible.

Who would be on the list of Allied nations?

1. USA, obviously;
2. Australia, for sure;
3. Japan;
4. South Korea;
5. France, probably;
6. Germany also probably;
7. The Phillipines, possibly;
8. New Zealand-uncertain; and
9. Potentially other European countries such as Belgium, Italy and Spain.


NATO could be involved, in case of Russian interference.

Action could commence with a complete blockade of North Korea, if China 
and Russia agree to assist, but I don't see them involved militarily, 
unless KIM turns on them too.






Edited by toyomotor - 15 Sep 2017 at 07:35
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2017 at 02:43
A blockade is an act of war, technically.  That was what was so hair raising about the Cuban blockade during the JFK administration.

Japan's "Self-Defense Force" does not do any fighting on UN mission, they just supply medical support, in secured areas.  That is part of the constitution that the US wrote for them under Shogun MacArthur.
They will fight for the homeland however.  But no "offensive" wars.

The European nations might not be in range of North Korean missiles, but I would not bet that the Asian and American countries are not in range.  I do wonder about how accurate their missile systems are.  But of course with a nuke, accuracy is less of a problem.  Americans worked on accuracy, and Russians just built bigger nukes.  My point is, that if there was an alliance, the North Koreans might retaliate against members.  North Korea also has diesel submarines.

An analyst on the radio has suggested that we can come to accept a nuclear North Korea, like we accept an nuclear Pakistan, and have relations with them.  We don't like that Pakistan has nukes (nor that India has nukes for that matter), but we live with it, as we do with China, Russia, Britain, France and Israel.  Ukraine and South Africa deserve special mention, they have actually given up nukes, I don't know if there are other former Soviet satellites that have done the same.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2017 at 10:25
Franciscosan
Quote A blockade is an act of war, technically. 

So is firing a missile through another country's air space.

Quote They will fight for the homeland however.  But no "offensive" wars.

You bet they will, they're being pushed into a corner. The Post WW2 consitution is being either updated or circumvented as Japan moves from a "Defensive only military" to a more assertive footing.

Quote The European nations might not be in range of North Korean missiles, but I would not bet that the Asian and American countries are not in range.

It's not all about if North Korea could attack European countries, but preventing it from having that ability.

Quote An analyst on the radio has suggested that we can come to accept a nuclear North Korea, like we accept an nuclear Pakistan, and have relations with them.

Compared to the ruler of North Korea, Pakistan is the epitomy of stability.

Quote  Ukraine and South Africa deserve special mention, they have actually given up nukes, I don't know if there are other former Soviet satellites that have done the same.  

Ukraine having nuclear capability would not be tolerated by Russia, and would be irrelevant compared to Russia's stockpile. South Africa is not threatended by anyone, so why bother?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2017 at 11:09
The problem with North Korea (DPRK) for short) is that it's getting ambitious. Like a teenager with his first gun, he's waving it about and threatening people for the buzz of feeling strong and important. DPRK actually doesn't want a war however much it threatens, what it wants is to get a place on the Big Table, alongside China, Russia, USA, and the UK, treated equally and possibly as far as achieving the assimilation of South Korea without having to fire a shot. The real danger is that DPRK will overstep the mark - and that will result in the US retaliating.
http://www.unrv.com/forum/blog/31-caldrails-blog/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2017 at 13:29
Originally posted by caldrail caldrail wrote:

The problem with North Korea (DPRK) for short) is that it's getting ambitious. Like a teenager with his first gun, he's waving it about and threatening people for the buzz of feeling strong and important. DPRK actually doesn't want a war however much it threatens, what it wants is to get a place on the Big Table, alongside China, Russia, USA, and the UK, treated equally and possibly as far as achieving the assimilation of South Korea without having to fire a shot. The real danger is that DPRK will overstep the mark - and that will result in the US retaliating.

Yes, Kim Jong Un's ambition is to be equal at least, militarily, with the US and to assert the North Korean nationalistic policies.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dark Warrior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2017 at 13:46
World minus a few should have finished that job in 53.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2017 at 13:55
Originally posted by Dark Warrior Dark Warrior wrote:

World minus a few should have finished that job in 53.

If only it was as simple as that.

North Korea at the time was heavily supported by China.

Russia was nibbling at the Baltic States and NATO was on edge.

Had the war continued, it would have been world minus very many, on both sides and probably the South Koreans would have suffered the most.

Note that there has never been a formal surrender, only an armistice, a "temporary cease fire", and that officially North Korea is still at war with the south and with UN Forces.

That you would consider more deaths a solution to the problem is chilling.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dark Warrior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2017 at 14:04
''That you would consider more deaths a solution to the problem is chilling.''

At best that's naïve. At worst an ignorance of the historical human event and condition not to mention history.

There' a very old saying amongst men at arms and I paraphrase...'don't start what you wont finish' iow. sh*tt or stay off the pot.

In the end I'll keep my pragmatism you keep your optimism...I know better.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2017 at 18:59
Originally posted by Dark Warrior Dark Warrior wrote:

''That you would consider more deaths a solution to the problem is chilling.''

At best that's naïve. At worst an ignorance of the historical human event and condition not to mention history.

There' a very old saying amongst men at arms and I paraphrase...'don't start what you wont finish' iow. sh*tt or stay off the pot.

In the end I'll keep my pragmatism you keep your optimism...I know better.

1. Not at all niaive. More a humanitarian observation of the war and potential outcomes.

2. If you're setting yourself up as an expert on the Korean War, perhaps you'd like to tell us all about your qualifications to do so. Your political and military understanding of the situation in the early 50's is sadly lacking.

3. "Don't start what you can't finish," is a reasonable comment from a militaristic perspective, but war isn't all about killing, it's about the peace too!

4. Pragmatism? No. More like aggressive fatalism to me.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dark Warrior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2017 at 21:09
4. Pragmatism? No. More like aggressive fatalism to me.

To each his own. My expertise take the form of Mil Science and History courses I attended and taught in various venues.My professional Mil experience...It was satisfactory for the US Govt/DoD/DA etc. so it should be here. if not its not important I can go elsewhere.

But I recommend ya bone up on John Lewis Gaddis and probably Clay Blair while you at it. probably the two most emminet on the subject.

Take a better look at the WW2 division of Chinese effort to gain a hegemony ie. War Lordism vs. Mao.

Then look at the espionage theft of the Russians; their nuc buildup which was the gorilla in the corner. And their on going desire to create buffers vs. US influence, wherever they might find it useful, during the defined period of the CW. And today.

This nightmare rightly begins there and not in 1950 perse. And was furthered compounded by MacArthur's delusional fixation on and in the region; particularly Japan. Matter of fact its ongoing as per the Rssians and their recent support in hardening DPRK Nucus caps from cyberattack.

That should get ya off to a nice start..

Here's some links:

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-helped-north-korea-harden-nuclear-arsenal-us-cyber-attacks-2017-10

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/ACFB76.pdf

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Oct 2017 at 01:51
In a surprising move, the Ambassador to Indonesia from North Korea has written a letter to a number of countries, requesting that they sever ties with the US.



[quote]


It would seem that the current sanctions imposed on North Korea are already starting to bite, or it could be that Kim has realised that the sanctions could completely ruin North Korea, to the point of non-existance.

But whatever the reason, the time is now ripe to try and open dialogues with North Korea, probably using the Ambassador as a go-between.

As Indonesia is a friendly neighbour, the Australian Prime Minister could easily speak with the Ambassador (why not invite him to Australia) to try and sort out the current problems.

It's worth a try anyway.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Oct 2017 at 22:17
I am sure the Australian Prime Minister has nothing better to do.....

In American Football lingo, it is called a "hail Mary" or "hail Mary pass."  A hail Mary is when the quarterback gets the ball, everybody on the team runs down the length of the field, and the quarterback throws it, hoping someone will be there to catch it.  Of course, it is not as hard as it sounds, because while the ball is in the air, players work to get into position to catch it, still it is a long shot (both literally and figuratively).

In the scheme of things, where do you think dealing with North Korea is on the PMs priorities compared with say, gay marriage or a root canal??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2017 at 00:26
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

I am sure the Australian Prime Minister has nothing better to do.....

In American Football lingo, it is called a "hail Mary" or "hail Mary pass."  A hail Mary is when the quarterback gets the ball, everybody on the team runs down the length of the field, and the quarterback throws it, hoping someone will be there to catch it.  Of course, it is not as hard as it sounds, because while the ball is in the air, players work to get into position to catch it, still it is a long shot (both literally and figuratively).

In the scheme of things, where do you think dealing with North Korea is on the PMs priorities compared with say, gay marriage or a root canal??

What's with the sarcasm? Another personal attack on me?

In the grand scheme of things, a peaceful outcome with North Korea would be high on his agenda, I hope.

And your comment about gay marriage and a root canal are not worthy of comment.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2017 at 04:25
No, I am serious, you basically said that the Australian government punted the football to the voters, being afraid to get mixed up in the matter of gay marriage, pro or con.

I think the Australian Prime Minister has a lot to do, on a scale of 1 to 100, 100 being very, where do you think getting involved in North Korean (pseudo-) diplomacy comes in, on the scale.  Of course, I am biased, calling it "pseudo-." but I think that for them the price of involvement in time and money way outweighs the potential for good results.  But, putting it on a scale of 1 to 100 doesn't give you much, unless you have other things on the scale.  You mentioned that the government is wrestling (reluctantly?) with gay marriage.  So you might put that on the scale as well.  Which would they prefer to tackle first?  You can put other issues on the same scale.  I think they would rather deal with gay marriage directly, than have anything to do with North Korea.  I say, directly, I mean decide the matter and take the static from either or both sides.

root canals are a hassle but painless if done right.....  Unlike dealing with KJU.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2017 at 04:39
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

No, I am serious, you basically said that the Australian government punted the football to the voters, being afraid to get mixed up in the matter of gay marriage, pro or con.

Yes, I did.

Quote I think the Australian Prime Minister has a lot to do, on a scale of 1 to 100, 100 being very, where do you think getting involved in North Korean (pseudo-) diplomacy comes in, on the scale.

Are you serious? North Korea's threats against Australia is not stuff we should be concerned about?

Quote government is wrestling (reluctantly?) with gay marriage.  So you might put that on the scale as well.  Which would they prefer to tackle first?  You can put other issues on the same scale. 

Of course they're not on the same scale-just a different scale, but nonetheless important.

Quote I think they would rather deal with gay marriage directly, than have anything to do with North Korea.  I say, directly, I mean decide the matter and take the static from either or both sides.

The government has taken the correct course IMHO, after all, they're elected to serve not rule, and the issue is a matter of personal concience.

By your post you display your ignorance and lack of understanding.Angry

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