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China - A threat to peace in the Pacific?

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fantasus View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 03:23
 An obvious possibillity may be a great internal change in China and some neighbours in the not too distant future away from its system of today. The leaders seem to be anxious about internal unrest.
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Captain Vancouver View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Captain Vancouver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 07:23
Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:

The US while it sings a great song for freedom and democracy, but allows its businessmen to make money using China's communist totalitarian govt., an example of real politik, that not only hurts its allies but has created a threat for all neighbors of China, in ASEAN, South Asia and Central Asia. Using its newly acquired wealth it has already started a regional cold war with India, while providing support for nuclear proliferation in Pakistan and North Korea, none of whom could achieve this milestone without direct help from China. It has also become assertive with Japan and in South China seas. Perhaps this is Zbig's great strategy of creating chaos in Eurasian landmass, so no power can become dominant there and threaten the status quo.

The big $64000 is when (not if) China transitions from single party system to multi-party system, what will happen? I do not think it will break apart with a coast versus inland like some are touting, China has become far too integrated for that with migrant labors, migrating everywhere and all over the place within China's geographic boundaries, including its virtual colonies in Tibet and Xinjiang.

In the meantime, the US led West needs to tame this monster they have fed and brought to world stage. Maybe an alliance of democratic nations in China's neighborhood is what is needed and giving them a boost with some of the market share for strategic balancing, which has now become a necessary part of real politik, in my opinion.

Japan, since its WW II days, have lost any appetite for international politics or geo-politics it seems.  Even with a rising threat next door, they are not making any independent moves, so I doubt that the Japanese will be able to play a role in taming China, unless they make active alliances with neighboring nations all around China.

There must be a world wide consensus on not giving support to one party totalitarian regimes or Army controlled name only pseudo-democracies, no matter how big or small that country may be, China is the finest example of a situation that could have been avoided if world leaders and leading countries put principle and sound strategy over money and greed of the profiteering rich. China was needed to counter former Soviet Union since the Ping Pong diplomacy of Nixon, but support and engagement should have become nuanced and balanced as soon as Soviet Union fell apart and the cold war was no longer relevant, so the rise could be controlled and not get out of control, like it has today.
 
 
If you were to put this to the Chinese leadership, they may claim that they are not much different than anyone else. The US, they might explain, is also a one party state. There is the right-wing, business oriented faction, and then there is the right-wing, business oriented, frothing at the mouth faction. Anyone else is ridiculed into obscurity.
 
Really though, if liberal democracies shunned everyone else, and did no business with reprehensible regimes, the world trade system would probably collapse. Under this system of ethics, Saudi Arabia would be one of the first deleted from the list. There goes all that oil. How about Russia? Doing business with the mafia? No holidays in Egypt until they get themselves sorted out. Don't even think about Israel.
 
It is an imperfect world, and we are stuck with reality. And at any rate, neither the US, nor the West, have the resources to "tame" anyone of note.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 15:06
Originally posted by pinguin pinguin wrote:

"Taming" China? For the well being of mankind, there are other, more risky perils: we better tam the U.S.A.
China has already Tamed America!
Unfortunately wild beast such as the USA don't live well in captivity. It might be time to put it down.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 16:17
Some info on Chinese dissidents:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_dissidents

Some info on Gao Quan, one of the more recent dissidents in the list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guo_Quan

Quote Open letters to Hu Jintao

    * On 14 November 2007, Professor Guo Quan published an open letter to Chinese communist leaders Hu Jintao and Wu Bangguo, calling for a "democratic government based on multi-party elections that serves the interests of the common folks."[2]

[edit] Police harassments and arrests

Guo's very public open letters to President Hu Jintao demanding multi-party elections and the depoliticisation of the People's Liberation Army, was widely published in internet blogosphere as well as the tradition media. Since then the Chinese cyber-police had begun to black out his blogs.

    * On 21 May 2008 Jonathan Watts of The Guardian reported: Chinese police have detained Guo Quan, a political dissident who criticized the government's handling of the Sichuan earthquake. Guo was seized outside his home by seven or eight police officers on 17 May 2008. They searched his house and confiscated his computer [3]

Guo Quan's wife Li Jing told reporter that Guo had been detained many times before, for a few days at a time. Now it could be for longer. “The police told me to prepare myself psychologically,” she said.

On 6 Feb 2008 Guo Quan told Jane Macartney, of The Times "that he had now found that the Chinese Yahoo! site had also blocked his name and he planned to bring actions against both companies." Mr Guo said: “Since January 1 a lot of friends told me that websites with my name had been closed. They told me it's impossible to search for my information on Google and Yahoo!”[4]
“     Writer and former professor of literature at Nanjing Normal University, detained November 13, 2008 on “suspicion of subverting state authority.” The reason for his arrest is not yet known, but is believed to be related to his writings. He had been detained for ten days in May 2008 following seven articles he published on mainland Chinese web sites that criticize the government’s emergency response to the May 12, 2008 Sichuan earthquake and the safety of certain infrastructures.[5]     ”

On 13 Nov 2008 cnews reported that Guo Quan, was arrested Thursday in the city of Nanjing. According to his wife, the police's charge was "subversion of state power" Chinese police routinely uses the charge of "subversion of state power"to imprison dissidents for years.[6]

On 17 Oct 2009, Reuters reported that he was sentenced to 10 years in jail.


I have heard that it takes a fairly significant percent of well fed and well educated middle class types to lead and carry out a revolution. In Tiananmen massacre, soldiers from provinces were brought in to shoot on mostly urban civilians. This time around it will be more difficult to suppress a revolt with the same tactics, since much have changed in China since 1989. So the population is probably ready for such a revolution but they do not yet have sufficient incentive to revolt because most still have the hope to get a better life. But if for some external reason, the growth rate suffers and there is widespread loss of jobs and layoffs and a resulting economic discontent, adding to existing rich/poor, rural/urban and coastal/inland divide, then we have a powder keg.

Like fantasus points out Beijing authority is jittery and nervous, for justifiable reasons.

One must understand that what we are discussing is good for the Chinese, their neighbors and the world, as it will create a better future for all parties concerned. The people to isolate and remove from power is Chinese CPC. So a few years of hardship should be an acceptable bitter pill for the Chinese as it will create a much better future for them in the longer term.

But for something like this to happen, the first thing we will need are some brave men and women, among strategists of the West and their leadership, who can see this through.

The CPC govt. in China is a looming threat for the US, West, Chinese neighbors and the world, as well as for the long term interest of the Chinese people, so it is the duty of world's population to get going with this project to bring down this menace once and for all. Conflict management with a truly democratic China with multi-party system, will become easier for China's neighbors and great powers like the US and EU. Llives of average Chinese citizen will improve and become much more bearable, specially for the minorities in the Autonomous regions.

Yes, the CPC govt. has a few trillion in reserve, but this belongs to 1.3 billion Chinese, so they may think that they can do as they please with it, but in reality they have much more constraint than we may think. When faced with a world-wide effort to remove this menace from the face of the planet, they will falter and fail, mainly against the tide of their own brave people. We just need to create a conducive environment for such an uprising, perhaps by taking some concerted series of steps.

It is time that thugs and killers of all varieties should be shown the door and seen off from the corridors of power from all corners of the world.



Edited by eventhorizon - 07 Mar 2011 at 16:29
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Captain Vancouver View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Captain Vancouver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 18:27
Why stop with China, eventhorizon? Africa is a mess, Pakistan is a nuclear armed state that is either near "failed state" status, or already crossing the line, depending on your reading, Saudi Arabia is an insult to human intelligence....the list is long. For that matter, you could right the wrongs of your own country, prosecuting Bush Jr and hangers on for the Iraq absurdity, and the CIA for decades of dirty tricks in the third world.
 
When you want perfection, and others to see the world like you do, you then have a long and rocky road to travel, one that no one has seen the end of yet.
 
Countries like the US and Britain, and others, have run roughshod over the rights of others, while going to the polls and crowing about democracy at the same time. Democracy is no guaruntee of justice. It helps, and hopefully the world will keep moving in the direction of liberalism and social justice, but imposing a parliament on China may or may not work out as you imagine.
 
As for China being a threat to the world, this may come about, but as yet there is scant evidence of it. They are playing the same geopolitical games that other big countries are, no more or less.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 23:46
Arguments from idealization of the extremes are fun but they are as divorced from reality as any frothing premising the utopic. I will not reiterate my first observation at the early end of this thread pooh-pooing the thematic of China as a "threat" to peace, but the fact that particular words are now being put forth as caught here--
 
Countries like the US and Britain, and others, have run roughshod over the rights of others, while going to the polls and crowing about democracy at the same time. Democracy is no guar[a]ntee of justice. It helps, and hopefully the world will keep moving in the direction of liberalism and social justice, but imposing a parliament on China may or may not work out as you imagine.
 
--the only valid reaction has to be what a hodgepodge of rhetorical nebulosities! Yes, I understand what you are trying to say CV but in dealing with the disconnected analogies raised by eventhorizon you fall into the same pit of caricature. For one last time political development in China can only be understood in terms of Chinese social and cultural realities and not as a function of idealizations that exist solely on paper or wonkish idealism. Unless we are going to talk about the Serene Republic of San Marino as the political example of harmony and progress, the verbiage on display is little more than a grand example of disconnection from historical realities. Besides, what is espoused here can be described as little more than a desire for cross-dressing the bane known as Imperialism and letting it loose upon the world as Democracism. No better example of this byzantine claptrap is on display at this very moment, the Qaddafi affair. Whatever angst is exclaimed over "democratic" aspirations will remain in the realm of indecisiveness until the issue of oil becomes unbearable on the industrial horizon--in fact certain "world players" are most happy with the present situation as far as revenues to their own domestic economies are concerned. What can i say other than spare us all of this emoting and let's return to the real world!


Edited by drgonzaga - 07 Mar 2011 at 23:47
Honi soit qui mal y pense
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fantasus View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Mar 2011 at 01:55
Why return to any idea of the "real world", whatever it is(the opposite must be the  the "unreal" world - where is it?). No, let us return to our armchairs and make our visions.
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